Matej Dodig vs Lorenzo GiustinoHagen Round of 16

Hagen · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#251ATP
1461ELO
1430Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
clay
PLATZMANN CENTRE COURT · 1st on
#195ATP
1420ELO
1355Clay ELO
$101kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWLLW
Dodig M.
6-4 5-7 6-7
Giustino L.
Dodig M.
6561
Giustino L.
4772

Lorenzo Giustino defeated Matej Dodig in the Round of 16 at the Hagen tournament on clay, coming back from a set down to win 4-6, 7-5, 7-6. Giustino and Dodig each secured four service breaks, but Giustino converted 80 percent of his break points to Dodig's 31 percent. Giustino hit five aces to Dodig's 10 and committed four double faults to Dodig's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.8
3.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
33
0
Break points saved·Dominant
76
32
Break points won·Slight edge
3
9
Deciding sets·Dominant
47
10
Tiebreaks·Dominant
65
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Dodig M.62%
Giustino L.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Dodig M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+75 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Clay Elo 1355
5.5Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1420
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
7.37 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.56 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
81
82

Dodig M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 41 games (7d) · Giustino L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw