Kayla Day vs Coco Gauff — Toronto Round of 64

Toronto · WTA · Round of 64
USA
Kayla Day
#127WTA
1595ELO
1576Hard ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Coco Gauff
USA4
Coco Gauff
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLLW
Day K.
vs
Gauff C.

Kayla Day faces Coco Gauff in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Coco Gauff holds the paper edge — ranked #4, a roughly 460-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Day K.15%
Gauff C.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Gauff C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Day K. 0–3 · Gauff C. 2–2 · small sample
Gauff C. better · same surface · incl. team event · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Day K.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Gauff C.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1576
Surface ELO
10.0+459 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1595
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2071
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

43 vs 40 matches

Statistics

This season
Day K.Gauff C.
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Even
47%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Day K.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Day K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Day K.Gauff C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
39
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
66
76
Break points won·Clear edge
88
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
18
100
Tiebreaks·Dominant
67
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Day K.Gauff C.
Freshness·
79
—

Day K.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CDrizzle
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw