Katarzyna Kawa vs Justina MikulskyteWarsaw Round of 16

Warsaw · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#133WTA
1664ELO
1489Hard ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#237WTA
1357ELO
1315Hard ELO
30 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWW
Kawa K.
5-7 6-2 1-6
Mikulskyte J.
Kawa K.
5611
Mikulskyte J.
7262

Justina Mikulskyte defeated Katarzyna Kawa in the Round of 16 at the Warsaw hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 in favor of Mikulskyte. Key stats included 2 aces and 4 double faults for Mikulskyte, compared to 3 aces and 4 double faults for Kawa; Mikulskyte won 70% of her first-serve points, while Kawa won 68%; Mikulskyte converted 62% of her break points, Kawa 67%; Mikulskyte had 5 service breaks to Kawa's 4.

Key context

  • Match story: Justina Mikulskyte came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 2–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
45%
Service points won·Even
54%
54%
Return points won·Even
48%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
20
Break points saved·Slight edge
15
25
Break points won·Clear edge
93
81
Deciding sets·Dominant
88
35
Tiebreaks·
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Kawa K.51%
Mikulskyte J.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.2+174 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1315
8.8Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
1.2Overall Elo 1357
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.12 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
96

Kawa K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Mikulskyte J.: 13 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw