Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin — Montreal Round of 64
BEL32
AUSQ
Collignon R.
Raphael Collignon faces Alexei Popyrin in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Raphael Collignon holds the paper edge — ranked #38, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Collignon R. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Raphael Collignon comes in with 15 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Alexei Popyrin's 1 and 74.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Raphael Collignon has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 73 vs 49).
- Last match: Alexei Popyrin dropped the opening set before beating Roman Andres Burruchaga 4–6 7–5 6–3.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCollignon R.: 15 days rest · Popyrin A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Halle | R32 | grass | Raphael Collignon | 4-6 2-6 |