Bastian Malla vs Carlos Maria Zarate

M25 Londrina · ITF · Round of 32

CHI

Bastian Malla

#948ATP

29 yrs

Last 10

LWWWLWWLLW

—

Sets

Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · 10:30

clay

ARG2

Carlos Maria Zarate

#387ATP

1200ELO

1187Clay ELO

21 yrs

Last 10

LWLWWWLWWW

Malla B.

Maria Zarate C.

Bastian Malla faces Carlos Maria Zarate in the M25 Londrina round of 32 on clay. Carlos Maria Zarate holds the paper edge — ranked #387, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Malla B.63%

Maria Zarate C.37%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Malla B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Head-to-head: Carlos Maria Zarate leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at M15 Sao Paulo 2026.
Fatigue load: Carlos Maria Zarate carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Bastian Malla 6 of 10, Carlos Maria Zarate 7 of 10 on clay recently — Carlos Maria Zarate the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Malla B.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Maria Zarate C.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

4.3Trails 1–2 on clay

H2H

5.7Leads 2–1 on clay

0.81 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.55 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 5

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season

Malla B.Maria Zarate C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

65%

54%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

60%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

54%

48%

Service points won·Even

58%

59%

Return points won·Even

44%

42%

Break points saved·Slight edge

51%

62%

Aces / match·Clear edge

0.9

2.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.9

4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Malla B.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Maria Zarate C.

Maria Zarate C.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Malla B.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

21°COvercast

Wind 1 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

1–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-07-30	M15 Sao Paulo	R16	clay	Bastian Malla	6-7(5) 6-7(5)
2026-07-14	M15 Villa Constitucion	R32	clay	Carlos Maria Zarate	3-6 4-6
2025-10-16	M15 Santiago 5	R16	clay	Carlos Maria Zarate	4-6 6-3 6-2

Bastian Malla vs Carlos Maria Zarate — M25 Londrina Round of 32