Bastian Malla vs Carlos Maria Zarate

M15 Mar Del Plata · ITF · Semi-final

CHI7

Bastian Malla

#892ATP

29 yrs

Last 10

WWWLWWLLWW

—

Sets

Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:35

clay

ARG2

Carlos Maria Zarate

#377ATP

1200ELO

1187Clay ELO

21 yrs

Last 10

WWWLWWWLWL

Malla B.

Maria Zarate C.

Bastian Malla faces Carlos Maria Zarate in the M15 Mar Del Plata semi-final on clay. Carlos Maria Zarate holds the paper edge — ranked #377, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Malla B.49%

Maria Zarate C.51%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Carlos Maria Zarate dropped just 5 games past Tomas Martinez.
Last match: Bastian Malla edged Maximo Zeitune in two tight sets (7–5 7–6).
Head-to-head: Carlos Maria Zarate leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at M15 Sao Paulo 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Malla B.

3.4

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Maria Zarate C.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.3Trails 1–2 on clay

H2H

5.7Leads 2–1 on clay

0.81 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.55 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 5

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season

Malla B.Maria Zarate C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

65%

54%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

60%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

53%

47%

Service points won·Even

57%

59%

Return points won·Even

44%

42%

Break points saved·Slight edge

52%

62%

Aces / match·Clear edge

0.7

2.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.3

4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Malla B.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Maria Zarate C.

Maria Zarate C.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Malla B.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

17°CMainly clear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

1–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-07-30	M15 Sao Paulo	R16	clay	Bastian Malla	6-7(5) 6-7(5)
2026-07-14	M15 Villa Constitucion	R32	clay	Carlos Maria Zarate	3-6 4-6
2025-10-16	M15 Santiago 5	R16	clay	Carlos Maria Zarate	4-6 6-3 6-2

Bastian Malla vs Carlos Maria Zarate — M15 Mar Del Plata Semi-final