Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan — Montreal Round of 128
Mochizuki S.
Shintaro Mochizuki faces Fabian Marozsan in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Fabian Marozsan holds the paper edge — ranked #55, a roughly 320-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Fabian Marozsan brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 32), Shintaro Mochizuki the stronger return game (Return Rating 73).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Fabian Marozsan has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 55 vs 9).
- Last match: Shintaro Mochizuki dropped the opening set before beating Dane Sweeny 1–6 7–6 6–3.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.