Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny — Montreal Qualifying Final
JPN14
AUS19
Mochizuki S.
Shintaro Mochizuki faces Dane Sweeny in the Montreal qualifying final on hard. Shintaro Mochizuki holds the paper edge — ranked #114.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Shintaro Mochizuki comes in with 3 days of rest and 133 games in 14d, vs Dane Sweeny's 3 and 65.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Dane Sweeny has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 45 vs 5).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMochizuki S.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d) · Sweeny D.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.