Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala — Washington Final

Washington · WTA · Final
Jessica Pegula
USA1
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
Alexandra Eala
PHI
Alexandra Eala
#28WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWLL
Pegula J.
vs
Eala A.

Jessica Pegula faces Alexandra Eala in the Washington final on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Pegula J.76%
Eala A.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
18 common opponents · Pegula J. 18–13 · Eala A. 17–10
Eala A. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Eala A.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.8+226 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1832
7.5Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1895
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.77 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 40 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Eala A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.3
1.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Eala A.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Eala A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
92
77
Break points saved·Even
79
75
Break points won·Even
98
97
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Eala A.
Freshness·Even
72
69

Pegula J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Eala A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-18MiamiSFhardJessica Pegula7-6 5-7 6-3

Draw