Gabriel Diallo vs Kyrian JacquetMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#99ATP
1716ELO
1678Hard ELO
$530kYTD
$3.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 203 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWLLLL
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#120ATP
1685ELO
1663Hard ELO
$269kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLWWW
Diallo G.
vs
Jacquet K.

Gabriel Diallo faces Kyrian Jacquet in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Gabriel Diallo holds the paper edge — ranked #99, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Diallo G.54%
Jacquet K.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.2+15 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1663
5.4Overall Elo 1716
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1685
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.84 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
70%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
32%
39%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Diallo G.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Jacquet K.

Jacquet K.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Diallo G.

Serve advantage — Jacquet K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
39
47
Break points saved·Even
89
87
Break points won·Slight edge
21
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
69
40
Tiebreaks·Dominant
24
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
93
70

Diallo G.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Jacquet K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw