Alexander Shevchenko vs Kyrian JacquetMontreal Qualifying Final

Montreal · ATP · Qualifying Final
#89ATP
1669ELO
1642Hard ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWLLLWW
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
#120ATP
1685ELO
1663Hard ELO
$269kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWWWW
Shevchenko A.
vs
Jacquet K.

Alexander Shevchenko faces Kyrian Jacquet in the Montreal qualifying final on hard. Alexander Shevchenko holds the paper edge — ranked #89, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Shevchenko A.50%
Jacquet K.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Shevchenko A. 2–0 · Jacquet K. 1–1 · small sample
Both won · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1642
Surface ELO
5.3+21 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1669
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1685
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.5
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Shevchenko A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Jacquet K.

Jacquet K.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Shevchenko A.

Serve advantage — Jacquet K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
47
Break points saved·Slight edge
77
87
Break points won·Slight edge
19
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
40
Tiebreaks·Even
93
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
87

Shevchenko A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Jacquet K.: 10 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-02-20M15 Heraklion 2R16hardAlexander Shevchenko7-5 6-4

Draw