Timofey Skatov vs Otto Virtanen — San Marino Round of 16
FIN2
Skatov T.
Timofey Skatov faces Otto Virtanen in the San Marino round of 16 on clay. Otto Virtanen is the paper favourite — ranked #115 — but Timofey Skatov has won both their previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Virtanen O. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Otto Virtanen brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 38), Timofey Skatov the stronger return game (Return Rating 52).
- Last match: Otto Virtanen edged Filippo Romano in two tight sets (7–5 6–4).
- Head-to-head: Timofey Skatov leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Roland Garros 2023.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSkatov T.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d) · Virtanen O.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | Q2 | clay | Timofey Skatov | 4-6 6-2 7-5 |
| 2023-05-24 | Roland Garros | Q64 | clay | Timofey Skatov | 4-6 6-2 7-5 |