Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino — San Marino Round of 16
Monteiro T.
Thiago Monteiro faces Andrea Pellegrino in the San Marino round of 16 on clay. Andrea Pellegrino is the paper favourite — ranked #137, a roughly 100-point clay Elo advantage — but Thiago Monteiro arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Andrea Pellegrino's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Pellegrino A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Thiago Monteiro comes in with 2 days of rest and 129 games in 14d, vs Andrea Pellegrino's 2 and 99.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Andrea Pellegrino has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 55 vs 18).
- Last match: Andrea Pellegrino handed Carlo Alberto Caniato a second-set bagel in a 6–4 6–0 win.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMonteiro T.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 56 games (7d) · Pellegrino A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.