Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Mia Ristic — Targu Mures Round of 16

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

UKRQ

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

#450WTA

1244ELO

1222Clay ELO

19 yrs

Last 10

WWWLLLWLLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 12:00

clay

COURT 1 · 1st on

SRB

Mia Ristic

#224WTA

1504ELO

1479Clay ELO

20 yrs

Last 10

WWWWWWLWLW

Kotliar Y.

Ristic M.

Yelyzaveta Kotliar faces Mia Ristic in the Targu Mures round of 16 on clay. Mia Ristic is the paper favourite — ranked #224, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 260-point clay Elo advantage — but Yelyzaveta Kotliar rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC

Kotliar Y.29%

Ristic M.71%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ristic M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Yelyzaveta Kotliar comes in with 2 days of rest and 99 games in 14d, vs Mia Ristic's 2 and 17.
Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Mia Ristic rising, Yelyzaveta Kotliar cooling.
Last match: Yelyzaveta Kotliar dropped the opening set before beating Dalila Spiteri 5–7 6–3 6–2.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Kotliar Y.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Ristic M.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

1.8Clay Elo 1222

Surface ELO

8.2+257 Clay Elo edge

1.8Overall Elo 1244

ELO gap

8.2Overall Elo 1504

1.6Trails 0–4 on clay

H2H

8.4Leads 4–0 on clay

6.36 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.16 of last 10 on clay

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 38 matches

Statistics

This season

Kotliar Y.Ristic M.

1st serve in·Even

64%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

59%

62%

2nd serve points won·Clear edge

40%

52%

Service points won·Slight edge

53%

59%

Return points won·Slight edge

50%

45%

Break points saved·Even

50%

54%

Aces / match·Slight edge

0.2

1.5

Double faults / match·Dominant

5.1

1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Kotliar Y.serving38% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Ristic M.

Ristic M.serving41% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Kotliar Y.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Kotliar Y.Ristic M.

Freshness·Dominant

Kotliar Y.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d) · Ristic M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

25°CClear

Wind 1 km/hHumidity 46%

Head to head

0–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-08-28	W35 Brasov 1	R16	clay	Mia Ristic	6-1 6-3
2025-08-21	W50 Bistrita 1	R16	clay	Mia Ristic	6-2 6-1
2025-06-16	W75 Zagreb 2	Q16	clay	Mia Ristic	6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(2)