Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Toby SamuelVancouver Round of 16

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#315ATP
1503ELO
1480Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#113ATP
1745ELO
1729Hard ELO
$217kYTD
$332kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLLWW
Dylan Hara Friend J.
6-4 7-5
Samuel T.
Dylan Hara Friend J.
672
Samuel T.
450

Jay Dylan Hara Friend advanced to the quarterfinals of the Vancouver tournament with a 6-4, 7-5 victory over Toby Samuel in the Round of 16. Hara Friend did not record an ace but converted 43% of his break points, securing three service breaks en route to the win. Samuel hit five aces but struggled with six double faults and only converted 17% of his break points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.6
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Dylan Hara Friend J.27%
Samuel T.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Samuel T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.9Hard Elo 1480
Surface ELO
8.1+248 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1503
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1745
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
99

Dylan Hara Friend J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw