Benjamin Bonzi vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Vancouver Quarter-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Benjamin Bonzi
FRA1
Benjamin Bonzi
#101ATP
1749ELO
1713Hard ELO
$396kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
30 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 4th on
JPNQ
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
#376ATP
1503ELO
1480Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLLWWW
Bonzi B.
vs
Dylan Hara Friend J.

Benjamin Bonzi faces Jay Dylan Hara Friend in the Vancouver quarter-final on hard. Benjamin Bonzi is the paper favourite — ranked #101, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Jay Dylan Hara Friend rides a 4-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Bonzi B.58%
Dylan Hara Friend J.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bonzi B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bonzi B.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Dylan Hara Friend J.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.9+233 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1480
8.1Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1503
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
Bonzi B.Dylan Hara Friend J.
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
49%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.4
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bonzi B.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Dylan Hara Friend J.

Dylan Hara Friend J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Bonzi B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Bonzi B.Dylan Hara Friend J.
Freshness·Clear edge
70
50

Bonzi B.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Dylan Hara Friend J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw