Edward Winter vs Jenson Brooksby — Los Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16
AUS
Edward Winter
#391ATP
1434ELO
1404Hard ELO
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWLWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
Jenson Brooksby
USA
Jenson Brooksby
#77ATP
1694ELO
1682Hard ELO
$546kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWLL
Winter E.
vs
Brooksby J.

Edward Winter faces Jenson Brooksby in the Los Cabos round of 16 on hard. Jenson Brooksby holds the paper edge — ranked #77, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Winter E.27%
Brooksby J.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Brooksby J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Winter E.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Brooksby J.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
1.5Hard Elo 1404
Surface ELO
8.5+278 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1434
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1694
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season
Winter E.Brooksby J.
1st serve in·Even
67%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
33%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
49%
Aces / match·Even
2.8
2.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Winter E.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Brooksby J.

Brooksby J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Winter E.

Serve advantage — Winter E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Winter E.Brooksby J.
Freshness·
55
—

Winter E.: played today · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw