Alevtina Ibragimova vs Lucia Bronzetti

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

RUS

Alevtina Ibragimova

#219WTA

1508ELO

1472Clay ELO

21 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

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—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 17:00

clay

COURT 1 · 3rd on

ITA4

Lucia Bronzetti

#118WTA

1622ELO

1605Clay ELO

27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Ibragimova A.

Bronzetti L.

Alevtina Ibragimova faces Lucia Bronzetti in the Targu Mures round of 16 on clay. Lucia Bronzetti holds the paper edge — ranked #118, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC

Ibragimova A.37%

Bronzetti L.63%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bronzetti L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Lucia Bronzetti dropped just 4 games past Miriana Tona.
Fatigue load: Alevtina Ibragimova carries the heavier recent load — 5 three-setters to 3 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Alevtina Ibragimova 7 of 10, Lucia Bronzetti 8 of 10 on clay recently — Lucia Bronzetti the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

3 common opponents · Ibragimova A. 1–2 · Bronzetti L. 2–2 · small sample

Both lost · same surface, 27 days apart▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Ibragimova A.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Bronzetti L.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.3Clay Elo 1472

Surface ELO

6.7+133 Clay Elo edge

3.6Overall Elo 1508

ELO gap

6.4Overall Elo 1622

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.97 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

7.78 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 47 matches

Statistics

This season

Ibragimova A.Bronzetti L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

70%

61%

1st serve points won·Even

59%

60%

2nd serve points won·Even

44%

48%

Service points won·Even

54%

55%

Return points won·Even

48%

Break points saved·Even

55%

53%

Aces / match·Even

1.3

1.8

Double faults / match·Even

2.5

2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 47). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Ibragimova A.serving34% hold

wins 43% of points on serve vs Bronzetti L.

Bronzetti L.serving36% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Ibragimova A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Ibragimova A.Bronzetti L.

Freshness·Slight edge

Ibragimova A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d) · Bronzetti L.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

30°CClear

Wind 3 km/hHumidity 34%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Alevtina Ibragimova vs Lucia Bronzetti — Targu Mures Round of 16