Polina Kudermetova vs Elina Svitolina — Washington Round of 16
UKR2
Kudermetova P.
Polina Kudermetova faces Elina Svitolina in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Elina Svitolina is the paper favourite — ranked #10, a roughly 350-point hard Elo advantage — but Polina Kudermetova rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Svitolina E. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Elina Svitolina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Polina Kudermetova's 51).
- Last match: Polina Kudermetova dropped the opening set before beating Cristina Bucsa 5–7 7–6 6–0.
- Fatigue load: Polina Kudermetova carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKudermetova P.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.