Maiko Uchijima vs Hayu Kinoshita — Vancouver Round of 16

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

JPN

Maiko Uchijima

22 yrs

Last 10

WWLWLLLWLL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · 10:00

hard

CENTRE COURT ARTEMIS GOLD · 1st on

JPN

Hayu Kinoshita

#222WTA

1546ELO

1531Hard ELO

19 yrs

Last 10

WLLLLWLLWW

Uchijima M.

Kinoshita H.

Maiko Uchijima faces Hayu Kinoshita in the Vancouver round of 16 on hard. Maiko Uchijima brings the better recent hard form (3 of 4).

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Uchijima M.16%

Kinoshita H.84%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Kinoshita H. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Form trend: Maiko Uchijima's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Hayu Kinoshita's has cooled.
Freshness: Workload contrast: Maiko Uchijima 39 games in 14 days, Hayu Kinoshita 17.
Last match: Maiko Uchijima dropped just 5 games past Miho Kuramochi.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Uchijima M.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Kinoshita H.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

6.57 of last 10 on hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

1 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season

Uchijima M.Kinoshita H.

1st serve in·Even

73%

74%

1st serve points won·Clear edge

40%

63%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

50%

Service points won·Clear edge

42%

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

39%

47%

Break points saved·Dominant

62%

Aces / match·Clear edge

0.0

1.8

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.0

1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Uchijima M.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Kinoshita H.

Kinoshita H.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Uchijima M.

Serve advantage — Kinoshita H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load

Uchijima M.Kinoshita H.

Freshness·Even

Uchijima M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Kinoshita H.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

18°COvercast

Wind 1 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.