Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Toby Samuel — Vancouver Round of 16

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

JPN

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

#376ATP

1503ELO

1480Hard ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLLLWWWW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · 16:00

hard

GBR7

Toby Samuel

#112ATP

1745ELO

1729Hard ELO

$217kYTD

$332kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWLLLW

Dylan Hara Friend J.

Samuel T.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend faces Toby Samuel in the Vancouver round of 16 on hard. Toby Samuel holds the paper edge — ranked #112, a roughly 250-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC

Dylan Hara Friend J.27%

Samuel T.73%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Samuel T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Jay Dylan Hara Friend comes in with 1 days of rest and 54 games in 14d, vs Toby Samuel's 0 and 107.
Last match: Jay Dylan Hara Friend edged Liam Broady in three tight sets (7–5 5–7 6–4).
Surface form: Jay Dylan Hara Friend 3 of 6, Toby Samuel 6 of 6 on hard recently — Toby Samuel the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Dylan Hara Friend J.

4.4

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Samuel T.

7.9

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

1.9Hard Elo 1480

Surface ELO

8.1+248 Hard Elo edge

2.0Overall Elo 1503

ELO gap

8.0Overall Elo 1745

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.07 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

10.010 of last 10 on hard

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

9.06-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

10 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season

Dylan Hara Friend J.Samuel T.

1st serve in·Even

66%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

68%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

49%

54%

Service points won·Even

62%

64%

Return points won·Even

39%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

59%

66%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.6

3.9

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.5

1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Dylan Hara Friend J.serving75% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Samuel T.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Dylan Hara Friend J.

Serve advantage — Samuel T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Dylan Hara Friend J.Samuel T.

Freshness·Clear edge

Dylan Hara Friend J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Samuel T.: played today · 5 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather forecast

21°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 59%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.