Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo — Washington Round of 16

Washington · ATP · Round of 16
Terence Atmane
FRA
Terence Atmane
#49ATP
1704ELO
1674Hard ELO
$717kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLLWLLLLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
Alejandro Tabilo
CHI
Alejandro Tabilo
#30ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLLWLLLLW
Atmane T.
vs
Tabilo A.

Terence Atmane faces Alejandro Tabilo in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Alejandro Tabilo holds the paper edge — ranked #30, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Atmane T.36%
Tabilo A.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Tabilo A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Atmane T. 3–5 · Tabilo A. 3–7
Atmane T. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Atmane T.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tabilo A.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1674
Surface ELO
6.0+76 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1704
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1819
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

20 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Atmane T.Tabilo A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
32%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.6
5.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Atmane T.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Tabilo A.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Atmane T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Atmane T.Tabilo A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
47
34
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
93
Break points won·Dominant
74
31
Deciding sets·Dominant
18
52
Tiebreaks·Dominant
78
6

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Atmane T.Tabilo A.
Freshness·Slight edge
74
64

Atmane T.: played today · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw