Joshua Sheehy vs Renta Tokuda — Vancouver Qualifying Semi-final
Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 1st on
JPN11#456ATP
1224ELO
1197Hard ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWW
Sheehy J.6-4 6-7 5-7
Tokuda R.
Sheehy J.
66551
Tokuda R.
47772
Renta Tokuda defeated Joshua Sheehy in the Vancouver semifinals, 4-6, 7-6, 7-5. Tokuda hit 5 aces and 3 double faults, while Sheehy had 16 aces and 5 double faults. Both players converted 12% of break points and had one service break each.
Key context
- Match story: Renta Tokuda dropped the opening set before beating Joshua Sheehy 4–6 7–6 7–5.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.7
2.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTCSheehy J.31%
Tokuda R.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Tokuda R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.74 of last 10 on hard
Surface form3.64 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 85%