Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Edas ButvilasWashington Qualifying Semi-final

Washington · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#144ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 4th on
#204ATP
1544ELO
1499Hard ELO
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLLL
Mcdonald M.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Butvilas E.
Mcdonald M.
3662
Butvilas E.
6341

Mackenzie McDonald defeated Edas Butvilas in the semifinals of the Washington tournament, advancing with a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory. McDonald converted all four of his break points, while Butvilas converted three of five. McDonald won the match despite having fewer aces (1 to 10) and more double faults (3 to 1) than Butvilas.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Even
4.8
5.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
29
21
Break points saved·Even
87
85
Break points won·Dominant
73
4
Deciding sets·Slight edge
7
15
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Mcdonald M.51%
Butvilas E.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+105 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Hard Elo 1499
5.8Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1544
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
76

Mcdonald M.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Butvilas E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw