Maria Timofeeva vs Aliaksandra SasnovichLivesport Prague Open Round of 32

Livesport Prague Open · WTA · Round of 32
#79WTA
1696ELO
1608Hard ELO
22 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWLWWW
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
hard
#143WTA
1726ELO
1697Hard ELO
32 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLLWW
Timofeeva M.
vs
Sasnovich A.

Maria Timofeeva faces Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Livesport Prague Open round of 32 on hard. Aliaksandra Sasnovich holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Timofeeva M.47%
Sasnovich A.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1608
Surface ELO
6.1+90 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1696
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1726
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.64 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
49%
46%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Timofeeva M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Sasnovich A.

Sasnovich A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Timofeeva M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
54
40
Break points saved·Dominant
76
9
Break points won·Slight edge
96
88
Deciding sets·Clear edge
59
78
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
20
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
79

Timofeeva M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Sasnovich A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-15BudapestR16clayAliaksandra Sasnovich6-3 6-4

Draw