Jan Choinski vs Jesper De Jong — Estoril Round of 32
GBR
Choinski J.
Jan Choinski faces Jesper De Jong in the Estoril round of 32 on clay. Jesper De Jong is the paper favourite — ranked #73, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Jan Choinski has won their only previous meeting, though none on clay. Jan Choinski brings the better recent clay form (5 of 6).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · De Jong J. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jan Choinski 136 games in 14 days, Jesper De Jong 43.
- Head-to-head: Jan Choinski leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at Dubai 2026.
- Surface form: Jan Choinski 5 of 6, Jesper De Jong 4 of 6 on clay recently — Jan Choinski the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadChoinski J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · De Jong J.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Dubai | Q1 | hard | Jan Choinski | 6-1 7-6 |