Liam Draxl vs Arthur Gea — Granby Quarter-final

Granby · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Liam Draxl
CAN5
Liam Draxl
#223ATP
1592ELO
1565Hard ELO
$201kYTD
$642kCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT CENTRAL · 1st on
FRA2
Arthur Gea
#137ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$359kYTD
$611kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWLWL
Draxl L.
vs
Gea A.

Liam Draxl faces Arthur Gea in the Granby quarter-final on hard. Arthur Gea holds the paper edge — ranked #137, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Draxl L.40%
Gea A.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gea A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Draxl L.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gea A.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1565
Surface ELO
5.6+44 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1592
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1596
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Draxl L.Gea A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Draxl L.serving75% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Gea A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Draxl L.

Serve advantage — Gea A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Draxl L.Gea A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
66
38
Break points saved·Even
83
81
Break points won·Slight edge
36
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
26
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
75
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Draxl L.Gea A.
Freshness·Slight edge
73
67

Draxl L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Gea A.: played today · 3 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw