Colton Smith vs Bu Yunchaokete — Lincoln Quarter-final

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
USA6
Colton Smith
#181ATP
1577ELO
1566Hard ELO
$154kYTD
$480kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 17 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
CHN2
Bu Yunchaokete
#109ATP
1709ELO
1644Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWWWWW
Smith C.
7-6 3-6 4-6
Yunchaokete B.
Smith C.
77341
Yunchaokete B.
61662

Bu Yunchaokete defeated Colton Smith in the quarterfinals of the Lincoln tournament, played on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in favor of Bu Yunchaokete.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Smith C.Yunchaokete B.
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
58%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
34%
Break points saved·Even
64%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
6.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Smith C.Yunchaokete B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
36
Break points saved·Even
94
97
Break points won·Dominant
52
26
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
38
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
8
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Smith C.28%
Yunchaokete B.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Yunchaokete B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Smith C.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Yunchaokete B.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1566
Surface ELO
6.0+78 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1577
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1709
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Smith C.Yunchaokete B.
Freshness·Even
57
53

Smith C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d) · Yunchaokete B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
34°CMainly clear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw