Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka — Lincoln Round of 16

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
USA6
Colton Smith
#181ATP
1577ELO
1566Hard ELO
$154kYTD
$480kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
JPN
Hayato Matsuoka
#347ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWLLWL
Smith C.
6-3 7-5
Matsuoka H.
Smith C.
672
Matsuoka H.
350

Colton Smith defeated Hayato Matsuoka in the Round of 16 at the Lincoln tournament, winning 6-3, 7-5 on hard courts. Smith advanced with the straight-sets victory.

Key context

  • Match story: Colton Smith closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Smith C.Matsuoka H.
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Smith C.84%
Matsuoka H.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Smith C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Smith C.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Matsuoka H.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+234 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1332
7.7Overall Elo 1577
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1361
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.48 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Smith C.Matsuoka H.
Freshness·Even
71
73

Smith C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Matsuoka H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
33°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw