Jacob Fearnley vs Stefan KozlovNewport Round of 16

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#107ATP
1600ELO
1546Grass ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
#296ATP
1429ELO
1414Grass ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLWWW
Fearnley J.
3-6 6-3 6-2
Kozlov S.
Fearnley J.
3662
Kozlov S.
6321

Jacob Fearnley defeated Stefan Kozlov 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Newport grass tournament. Fearnley hit one ace and six double faults, while Kozlov had two aces and two double faults. Fearnley converted 60 percent of his break points and won 64 percent of his first-serve points, compared to Kozlov's 62 percent break point conversion and 59 percent first-serve win percentage; Fearnley secured 6 service breaks to Kozlov's 5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.9
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
85
11
Break points saved·Dominant
96
29
Break points won·Dominant
70
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
54
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
7

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Fearnley J.79%
Kozlov S.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+132 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Grass Elo 1414
7.1Overall Elo 1600
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1429
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.96 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
90
83

Fearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Kozlov S.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw