Alice Tubello vs Caroline Uebelhoer — Contrexeville Round of 16
Tubello A.
Alice Tubello faces Caroline Uebelhoer in the Contrexeville round of 16 on clay. Alice Tubello is the paper favourite — a roughly 60-point clay Elo advantage — but Caroline Uebelhoer arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Alice Tubello's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Tubello A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alice Tubello comes in with 14 days of rest and 14 games in 14d, vs Caroline Uebelhoer's 1 and 76.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Caroline Uebelhoer rising, Alice Tubello cooling.
- Last match: Alice Tubello dropped the opening set before beating Yufei Ren 2–6 7–5 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadTubello A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Uebelhoer C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.