Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Kaitlin QuevedoBastad Round of 16

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#219WTA
1543ELO
1513Clay ELO
28 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWWLWWL
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRE COURT · 3rd on
#107WTA
1757ELO
1714Clay ELO
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWLWWW
Rinaldo Persson K.
vs
Quevedo K.

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson faces Kaitlin Quevedo in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Kaitlin Quevedo holds the paper edge — ranked #107, a roughly 200-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Rinaldo Persson K.24%
Quevedo K.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Quevedo K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Clay Elo 1512
Surface ELO
7.5+202 Clay Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1543
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1757
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

29 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Even
52%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.3
2.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rinaldo Persson K.serving44% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Quevedo K.

Quevedo K.serving44% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Rinaldo Persson K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
86

Rinaldo Persson K.: 21 days rest · Quevedo K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 2Arango E. v Badosa P.
  2. 3Rinaldo Persson K. v Quevedo K.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CClear
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.