Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Kaitlin QuevedoBastad Quarter-final

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
1373ELO
1358Clay ELO
28 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLLLWL
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
clay
#107WTA
1757ELO
1714Clay ELO
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLWW
Burillo Escorihuela I.
vs
Quevedo K.

Irene Burillo Escorihuela faces Kaitlin Quevedo in the Bastad quarter-final on clay. Kaitlin Quevedo holds the paper edge — a roughly 360-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Burillo Escorihuela I.27%
Quevedo K.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Quevedo K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
0.5Clay Elo 1358
Surface ELO
9.5+356 Clay Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1373
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1757
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
3.63 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
53%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
50%
58%
Return points won·Even
49%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
46%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.4
2.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Burillo Escorihuela I.serving33% hold

wins 43% of points on serve vs Quevedo K.

Quevedo K.serving42% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Burillo Escorihuela I.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
89

Burillo Escorihuela I.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Quevedo K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.