Varvara Lepchenko vs Tamara Korpatsch — Bastad Round of 16
Lepchenko V.
Varvara Lepchenko faces Tamara Korpatsch in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Tamara Korpatsch holds the paper edge — ranked #78, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Korpatsch T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Varvara Lepchenko comes in with 14 days of rest and 28 games in 14d, vs Tamara Korpatsch's 8 and 15.
- Last match: Tamara Korpatsch dropped just 5 games past Linea Bajraliu.
- Last match: Varvara Lepchenko edged Lisa Zaar in three tight sets (6–4 4–6 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadLepchenko V.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Korpatsch T.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.