Lukas Neumayer vs Guido Ivan JustoTrieste Round of 16

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#171ATP
1621ELO
1598Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$576kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 4 · 2nd on
#233ATP
1443ELO
1433Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
Neumayer L.
6-4 5-7 6-4
Ivan Justo G.
Neumayer L.
6562
Ivan Justo G.
4741

Lukas Neumayer defeated Guido Ivan Justo in the Round of 16 at the Trieste tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 5-7, 6-4. Neumayer hit 3 aces and 2 double faults, while Justo hit 6 aces and 1 double fault. Neumayer converted 27% of break points and broke serve 6 times, compared to Justo's 42% conversion rate and 5 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Lukas Neumayer edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 5–7 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
47%
Break points saved·Even
61%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
40
12
Break points saved·Dominant
71
23
Break points won·Clear edge
62
42
Deciding sets·Slight edge
11
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
50

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Neumayer L.77%
Ivan Justo G.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Neumayer L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.1+166 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Clay Elo 1432
7.2Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1443
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.48 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
87
100

Neumayer L.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d) · Ivan Justo G.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 42%

Draw