Dmitry Popko vs Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaBogota Round of 32

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#673ATP
1385ELO
1334Clay ELO
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLLLLL
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#281ATP
1412ELO
1404Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
Popko D.
3-6 6-4 5-7
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
Popko D.
3651
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
6472

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida defeated Dmitry Popko in the Round of 32 of the Bogota clay tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 in favor of Pucinelli De Almeida. He converted 67% of his break points and secured 6 service breaks, compared to Popko's 4 breaks and 33% break point conversion rate.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
48%
Break points saved·Even
59%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
0
5
Break points saved·Slight edge
27
36
Break points won·Dominant
3
43
Deciding sets·Slight edge
4
11
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
1

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Popko D.37%
Pucinelli De Almeida M.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pucinelli De Almeida M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Clay Elo 1334
Surface ELO
5.7+57 Clay Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1385
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1400
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
3.63 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
59

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw