Bernard Tomic vs Braden Shick — Newport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Bernard Tomic
AUS
Bernard Tomic
#204ATP
1474ELO
1497Grass ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLLLWL
—
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
USA
Braden Shick
#325ATP
1384ELO
1392Grass ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWW
Tomic B.
vs
Shick B.

Bernard Tomic faces Braden Shick in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Bernard Tomic is the paper favourite — ranked #204, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage — but Braden Shick rides a 4-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Tomic B.84%
Shick B.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tomic B. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tomic B.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Shick B.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
6.3+105 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Grass Elo 1392
6.1Overall Elo 1474
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1384
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tomic B.Stable
Shick B.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
Tomic B.Shick B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
62%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
55%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tomic B.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Shick B.

Shick B.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Tomic B.Shick B.
Freshness·Clear edge
96
76

Tomic B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Shick B.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying