Lukas Neumayer vs Andrej NedicTrieste Round of 32

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#167ATP
1608ELO
1592Clay ELO
$133kYTD
$573kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWWWWW
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
#250ATP
1492ELO
1483Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLLL
Neumayer L.
vs
Nedic A.

Lukas Neumayer faces Andrej Nedic in the Trieste round of 32 on clay. Lukas Neumayer holds the paper edge — ranked #167, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC
Neumayer L.65%
Nedic A.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Neumayer L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+109 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1483
6.5Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1492
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nedic A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
59%
Return points won·Even
41%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
2.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Neumayer L.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Nedic A.

Nedic A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Neumayer L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
98
69

Neumayer L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Nedic A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.