James Mccabe vs Rei SakamotoNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#207ATP
1546ELO
1544Grass ELO
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWWLWW
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
#150ATP
1629ELO
1478Grass ELO
$233kYTD
$492kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLWWW
Mccabe J.
vs
Sakamoto R.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Mccabe J.51%
Sakamoto R.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.8+66 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Grass Elo 1478
4.0Overall Elo 1546
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1629
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.6
6.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mccabe J.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Sakamoto R.

Sakamoto R.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Mccabe J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
38
49
Break points saved·Even
85
87
Break points won·Even
9
8
Deciding sets·Clear edge
71
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
12
23

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
98
70

Mccabe J.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Sakamoto R.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.