August Holmgren vs Tristan Schoolkate — Newport Round of 32
Holmgren A.
August Holmgren faces Tristan Schoolkate in the Newport round of 32 on grass. August Holmgren holds the paper edge — ranked #143, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Surface form: Both 3 of 7 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHolmgren A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Schoolkate T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.