Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady — Newport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Aleksandar Vukic
AUS
Aleksandar Vukic
#104ATP
1624ELO
1579Grass ELO
$366kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWWLWL
—
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
Liam Broady
GBR
Liam Broady
#209ATP
1601ELO
1510Grass ELO
32 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLLLWLWLW
Vukic A.
vs
Broady L.

Aleksandar Vukic faces Liam Broady in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Aleksandar Vukic holds the paper edge — ranked #104, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Vukic A.52%
Broady L.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Vukic A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Broady L.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+69 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Grass Elo 1510
5.3Overall Elo 1624
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1601
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.93 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Vukic A.Rising
Broady L.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Vukic A.Broady L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Clear edge
32%
45%
Break points saved·Even
61%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.0
2.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vukic A.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Broady L.

Broady L.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Vukic A.

Serve advantage — Broady L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Vukic A.Broady L.
Clutch Rating·Even
58
58
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
86
Break points won·Clear edge
16
29
Deciding sets·Slight edge
72
79
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Vukic A.Broady L.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
74

Vukic A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Broady L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying