Adrian Mannarino vs Remy Bertola — Newport Round of 32
SUI
Mannarino A.
Adrian Mannarino faces Remy Bertola in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Adrian Mannarino is the paper favourite — ranked #40, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage — but Remy Bertola has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass. Remy Bertola brings the better recent grass form (7 of 9).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Mannarino A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Adrian Mannarino comes in with 3 days of rest and 66 games in 14d, vs Remy Bertola's 10 and 106.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Adrian Mannarino has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 67 vs 30).
- Head-to-head: Remy Bertola leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Basel 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMannarino A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Bertola R.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Basel | Q1 | hard | Remy Bertola | 6-1 6-2 |