Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel — Eastbourne Semi-final

Eastbourne · ATP · Semi-final

BEL

Zizou Bergs

#48ATP

1756ELO

1628Grass ELO

$971kYTD

$4.0MCAREER

27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLLLLWLW

—

Sets

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 14:30

grass

GBR

Toby Samuel

#142ATP

1673ELO

1540Grass ELO

$152kYTD

$267kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLLWWLW

Bergs Z.

Samuel T.

Zizou Bergs faces Toby Samuel in the Eastbourne semi-final on grass. Zizou Bergs holds the paper edge — ranked #48, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Bergs Z.66%

Samuel T.34%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bergs Z. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Zizou Bergs comes in with 1 days of rest and 67 games in 14d, vs Toby Samuel's 1 and 128.
Last match: Zizou Bergs dropped just 6 games past Jan Choinski.
Win streak: Zizou Bergs arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Bergs Z.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Samuel T.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.1+87 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.9Grass Elo 1540

6.0Overall Elo 1756

ELO gap

4.0Overall Elo 1673

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.45 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.87 of last 10 on grass

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Bergs Z.Stable

Samuel T.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season

Bergs Z.Samuel T.

1st serve in·Slight edge

57%

67%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

73%

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

53%

55%

Service points won·Even

64%

63%

Return points won·Slight edge

36%

42%

Break points saved·Even

63%

65%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.0

3.6

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.1

2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Bergs Z.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Samuel T.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Bergs Z.

Serve advantage — Samuel T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Bergs Z.Samuel T.

Freshness·Slight edge

Bergs Z.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d) · Samuel T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°CClear

Wind 23 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.