Mccartney Kessler vs Madison KeysEastbourne Quarter-final

Eastbourne · WTA · Quarter-final
#47WTA
1808ELO
1693Grass ELO
$742kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
#22WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWWWW
Kessler M.
3-6 1-6
Keys M.
Kessler M.
310
Keys M.
662

Madison Keys defeated Mccartney Kessler 6-3, 6-1 in the quarterfinals of the Eastbourne grass tournament. Keys served 2 aces to Kessler's 0 and did not commit a double fault, while converting 40% of her break points to Kessler's 0%. Keys won 90% of her first-serve points and broke Kessler's serve 4 times.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32hardMadison Keys6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
89
Break points saved·Dominant
29
83
Break points won·Even
88
92
Deciding sets·Slight edge
85
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Kessler M.30%
Keys M.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Keys M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.2Grass Elo 1519
Surface ELO
6.8+146 Grass Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1695
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1886
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.67 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
93

Kessler M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Keys M.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw