Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs — Eastbourne Quarter-final

Eastbourne · ATP · Quarter-final

GBR

Jan Choinski

#106ATP

1635ELO

1434Grass ELO

$198kYTD

$1.2MCAREER

30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Thursday, 25 June 2026 · 12:30

grass

BEL

Zizou Bergs

#48ATP

1756ELO

1628Grass ELO

$971kYTD

$4.0MCAREER

27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Choinski J.

Bergs Z.

Jan Choinski faces Zizou Bergs in the Eastbourne quarter-final on grass. Zizou Bergs is the paper favourite — ranked #48, a roughly 190-point grass Elo advantage — but Jan Choinski arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last grass matches to Zizou Bergs's 2. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Zizou Bergs ahead 1–0 on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Choinski J.26%

Bergs Z.74%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bergs Z. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Jan Choinski comes in with 2 days of rest and 180 games in 14d, vs Zizou Bergs's 2 and 87.
Last match: Zizou Bergs advanced when Daniel Altmaier retired.
Surface form: Jan Choinski 4 of 4, Zizou Bergs 2 of 4 on grass recently — Jan Choinski the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Choinski J.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Bergs Z.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

2.6Grass Elo 1434

Surface ELO

7.4+194 Grass Elo edge

3.5Overall Elo 1635

ELO gap

6.5Overall Elo 1756

2.2Trails 0–2 on grass

H2H

7.8Leads 2–0 on grass

7.47 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

4.34 of last 10 on grass

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.05 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Choinski J.Stable

Bergs Z.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season

Choinski J.Bergs Z.

1st serve in·Slight edge

64%

57%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

73%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

53%

Service points won·Even

62%

64%

Return points won·Even

36%

Break points saved·Even

60%

63%

Aces / match·Clear edge

4.5

7.0

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.0

4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Choinski J.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Bergs Z.

Bergs Z.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Choinski J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Choinski J.Bergs Z.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Choinski J.Bergs Z.

Freshness·Dominant

Choinski J.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 143 games (7d) · Bergs Z.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Head to head

1–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-06-17	Queen's Club	Q1	grass	Zizou Bergs	7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-2
2024-01-01	Hong Kong	Q1	hard	Jan Choinski	6-2 6-2