Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro — Bad Homburg Round of 32
USA
Lys E.
Eva Lys faces Emma Navarro in the Bad Homburg round of 32 on grass. Emma Navarro holds the paper edge — ranked #25, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Navarro E. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Eva Lys 39 games in 14 days, Emma Navarro 89.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Emma Navarro grades 43 on serve, Eva Lys 74 on return.
- Stage: Emma Navarro defends last year's quarter-final.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadLys E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Navarro E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.