Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe

Halle · ATP · Final

USA

Taylor Fritz

#9ATP

1849ELO

1799Grass ELO

$1.3MYTD

$31MCAREER

28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 15:30

grass

USA

Frances Tiafoe

#26ATP

1876ELO

1739Grass ELO

$1.3MYTD

$17MCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Fritz T.

Tiafoe F.

Taylor Fritz faces Frances Tiafoe in the Halle final on grass. Taylor Fritz holds the paper edge — ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 7–1, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Fritz T.59%

Tiafoe F.41%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fritz T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Taylor Fritz comes in with 1 days of rest and 214 games in 14d, vs Frances Tiafoe's 1 and 150.
Serve & return: Taylor Fritz leads on Serve Rating (79), Frances Tiafoe on Return Rating (30).
Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz leads the head-to-head 7–1; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at US Open 2024.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Fritz T.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Tiafoe F.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.8+60 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.2Grass Elo 1739

4.7Overall Elo 1849

ELO gap

5.3Overall Elo 1876

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

9.09 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.77 of last 10 on grass

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.06 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Fritz T.Stable

Tiafoe F.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season

Fritz T.Tiafoe F.

1st serve in·Slight edge

69%

61%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

80%

74%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

53%

Service points won·Slight edge

71%

66%

Return points won·Even

33%

35%

Break points saved·Even

68%

65%

Aces / match·Dominant

15.9

6.6

Double faults / match·Even

1.6

1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Fritz T.serving96% hold

wins 77% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Fritz T.Tiafoe F.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

100

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Even

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

Fritz T.Tiafoe F.

100

Serve

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Return

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Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Fritz T.Tiafoe F.

Freshness·Clear edge

Fritz T.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 140 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

25°CPartly cloudy

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

7–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-08-26	US Open	SF	hard	Taylor Fritz	4-6 7-5 4-6 6-4 6-1
2023-02-27	Acapulco	QF	hard	Taylor Fritz	6-3 6-4
2022-10-03	Tokyo	F	hard	Taylor Fritz	7-6(3) 7-6(2)
2022-08-08	Canada Masters	R32	hard	Taylor Fritz	5-7 6-1 6-4
2022-01-17	Australian Open	R64	hard	Taylor Fritz	6-4 6-3 7-6(5)
2019-10-28	Paris Masters	R64	hard	Taylor Fritz	7-6(6) 3-6 6-4
2016-08-22	Winston-Salem	R64	hard	Taylor Fritz	6-1 6-4
2016-03-07	Indian Wells Masters	R128	hard	Frances Tiafoe	6-3 2-6 6-3