Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski — Eastbourne Qualifying Final
USA4
GBR
Giron M.
Marcos Giron faces Jan Choinski in the Eastbourne qualifying final on grass. Marcos Giron holds the paper edge — ranked #86, a roughly 250-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Giron M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Marcos Giron comes in with 4 days of rest and 154 games in 14d, vs Jan Choinski's 2 and 115.
- Last match: Marcos Giron dropped the opening set before beating Charles Broom 3–6 7–6 6–2.
- Last match: Jan Choinski edged Yibing Wu in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadGiron M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 93 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.