Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina RyserFigueira Da Foz Round of 16

Figueira Da Foz · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#176WTA
1705ELO
1701Hard ELO
18 yrs
Last 10
WLWLLLWWWW
Sets
Thursday, 18 June 2026 ·
hard
#306WTA
1465ELO
1429Hard ELO
25 yrs
Last 10
WWWLWWWWLL
Vandromme J.
vs
Ryser V.

Jeline Vandromme faces Valentina Ryser in the Figueira Da Foz round of 16 on hard. Jeline Vandromme is the paper favourite — ranked #176, a roughly 270-point hard Elo advantage — but Valentina Ryser rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:20 UTC
Vandromme J.76%
Ryser V.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Vandromme J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.4+271 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Hard Elo 1429
7.4Overall Elo 1705
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1464
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vandromme J.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Ryser V.

Ryser V.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Vandromme J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
66
66

Vandromme J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d) · Ryser V.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
17°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 87%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.