Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri — Parma Quarter-final
Rincon D.
Daniel Rincon faces Buvaysar Gadamauri in the Parma quarter-final on clay. Buvaysar Gadamauri holds the paper edge — ranked #260, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Gadamauri B. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniel Rincon 60 games in 14 days, Buvaysar Gadamauri 99.
- Last match: Daniel Rincon advanced when Stefano Napolitano retired.
- Last match: Buvaysar Gadamauri edged Jacopo Vasami in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadRincon D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Gadamauri B.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.